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Cambridge United vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
Preview
14:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
10/24/2026League OneLeague One · Round 13Abbey Stadium
Big match
37%
Cambridge United
model favours
37%26%37%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United37%
×Draw26%
Plymouth37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.29
Plymouth
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 114 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Plymouth
1.39

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Plymouth
1.50

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
63%
Cambridge United or Plymouth
74%
Draw or Plymouth
63%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
16%
Plymouth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
72%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
37%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
14%
Plymouth 1+ goals
73%
Plymouth 2+ goals
37%
Plymouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
50%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambridge United scores more
37%
level
26%
Plymouth scores more
37%

Cambridge United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Style contrast — Cambridge United play Direct / counter-attacking, Plymouth Attack-heavy
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cambridge United
Direct / counter-attacking
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
43%Possession49%
65%Pass accuracy68%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap13.4
—xG2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Cambridge UnitedPlymouth

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Cambridge United
3
Draws
1
Plymouth
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 33%
1–30–02–01–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
United
WWDW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cambridge United vs Plymouth — Match Preview

Cambridge United face Plymouth on October 24, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cambridge United host Plymouth at Abbey Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.