Cambridge United 1–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

K. Knoyle 18'

12/7/2019

League Two · Round 20Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Cambridge United39%

×Draw27%

Plymouth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Cambridge United

1.27

Plymouth

1.15

Cambridge United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 24 away

1.49

creates per match

1.33

0.97

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Plymouth

1.33

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Plymouth

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

67%

Cambridge United or Plymouth

73%

Draw or Plymouth

61%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

17%

Plymouth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

72%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

36%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

14%

Plymouth 1+ goals

68%

Plymouth 2+ goals

32%

Plymouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

54%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cambridge United scores more

39%

level

27%

Plymouth scores more

33%

Cambridge United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

K. Knoyle

Cambridge United · D

7.7

Match Events

18'

33'

43'

50'

55'

57'

60'

S. Carruthers← L. ONeil

65'

G. Cooper← J. Edwards

66'

Samir Carruthers

73'

B. Clarke← D. Telford

79'

J. Roles← R. Lambe

79'

A. Dallas← H. Knibbs

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgePlymouth

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots9

7Corners9

11Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target2

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

5Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

341Total Passes411

232Accurate Passes305

68%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2