Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cambridge United vs Mansfield Town — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
R. Loft 47'
J. Stokes 7' (pen)
M. Morrison 1'
L. Gregory 90+1' (pen)
G. Maris 61'
1/25/2025League OneLeague One · Round 28Cledara Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cambridge United37%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.22
Mansfield Town
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 46 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Mansfield Town
1.17

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Mansfield Town
1.35

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
65%
Cambridge United or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
63%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
70%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
34%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
12%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
33%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
51%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Mansfield Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mansfield Town attack 1.17 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambridge United scores more
37%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
35%

Cambridge United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
J. StokesCambridge UnitedCambridge United · F
8.6

Match Events

1'
M. Morrison
7'
J. StokesPenalty
40'
J. Stevens← M. Maroši
45+2'
Elliott Hewitt
47'
R. Loft↳ K. Watts
55'
H. Boateng← E. Hewitt
55'
G. Maris← L. Reed
56'
S. McLaughlin← A. Lewis
61'
G. Maris
65'
B. Waine← W. Evans
71'
P. Digby← R. Loft
72'
Paul Digby
82'
J. Gibbons← D. Andrew
82'
J. Okedina← L. Bennett
83'
B. Njoku← E. Kachunga
83'
L. Gregory← L. Akins
90+1'
Jack Stevens
90+2'
Frazer Blake-Tracy
90+1'
L. GregoryPenalty

Possession

41%Cambridge

Shots

15Cambridge

Pass accuracy

48%Cambridge

Statistics

CambridgeMansfield
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots9
3Corners3
17Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots9
4On Target3
5Off Target2
6Blocked4
10Inside Box8
5Outside Box1
Passing
41%Possession59%
293Total Passes429
173Accurate Passes276
59%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League One: Cambridge United 3–2 Mansfield Town

Cambridge United beat Mansfield Town 3-2 in League One on January 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Morrison (1'), J. Stokes (7' pen), R. Loft (47'), G. Maris (61'), L. Gregory (90+1' pen).

Mansfield Town controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Cledara Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.