Cambridge United 2–3 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Mansfield Town

G. Taylor 44'

H. Knibbs 3'

N. Maynard 81', 71', 36'

1/1/2020

League Two · Round 25Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cambridge United41%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Cambridge United

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.11

Cambridge United creates 19% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 141 away

1.49

creates per match

1.25

0.97

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

69%

Cambridge United or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

59%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

19%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

73%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

38%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

15%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

67%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

30%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

57%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cambridge United scores more

41%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

31%

Cambridge United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Maynard

Mansfield Town · F

9.3

Match Events

3'

36'

44'

57'

59'

59'

65'

70'

71'

N. Maynard↳ C. Hamilton

79'

J. Clarke← H. White

79'

A. Cook← N. Bishop

81'

N. Maynard↳ K. Pearce

90'

Jack Roles

90'

Jacob Mellis

90'

A. Dallas← G. Taft

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeMansfield

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots16

1Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target8

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

281Total Passes432

144Accurate Passes294

51%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2