Cambridge United 3–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

S. Smith 90+3'

H. Dunk 62'

H. Knibbs 45+1'

J. Dodoo 71'

1/18/2022

League One · Round 25Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cambridge United47%

×Draw27%

Doncaster27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.01

Cambridge United

1.43

Doncaster

1.01

Cambridge United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

1.04

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.04

Doncaster

0.83

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.20

Doncaster

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

73%

Cambridge United or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

53%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

23%

Doncaster wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

76%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

42%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

17%

Doncaster 1+ goals

64%

Doncaster 2+ goals

27%

Doncaster 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

64%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.04 + Doncaster defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Doncaster attack 0.83 + Cambridge United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cambridge United scores more

47%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

27%

Cambridge United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Dunk

Cambridge United · D

7.9

Match Events

28'

Jack Iredale

45+1'

H. Knibbs↳ J. Lankester

62'

H. Dunk↳ A. May

64'

S. Smith← J. Ironside

64'

71'

71'

83'

84'

B. Worman← J. Lankester

89'

90+2'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeDoncaster

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots11

1Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots11

5On Target5

1Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

382Total Passes390

248Accurate Passes267

65%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Doncaster

Cambridge United beat Doncaster 3-1 in League One on January 18, 2022.

Goals: H. Knibbs (45+1'), H. Dunk (62'), J. Dodoo (71'), S. Smith (90+3').

Doncaster controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.

Cambridge United vs Doncaster — League One 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Doncaster