Cambridge United vs Doncaster — League Two 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Cambridge United49%
Doncaster26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cambridge United creates 46% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 73 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cambridge United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cambridge United at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches
Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cambridge United attack 1.74 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58
Doncaster attack 1.38 + Cambridge United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Cambridge United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Doncaster substitutes
Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Northampton
Stockport County
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford City
Mansfield Town
Barrow
Swindon Town
Grimsby
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton Utd
Newport County
Walsall
GillinghamDoncaster
Harrogate Town
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town
Hartlepool
RochdaleIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Cambridge United host Doncaster on Tuesday, 28 February 2017 at 19:45. The match is part of the League Two 2022/2023 season.
League Two: Cambridge United 2–3 Doncaster
Doncaster beat Cambridge United 3-2 in League Two on February 28, 2017.
Goals: T. Rowe (18'), M. Baudry (23'), J. Marquis (71' pen), G. Maris (78'), L. Berry (90+2').
The match was played at The R Costings Abbey Stadium (Cambridge, Cambridgeshire).