Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bristol Rovers

K. Watts 79'

B. Knight 56' (pen), 34'

J. Quigley 45' (pen)

2/14/2026

League Two · Round 32Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cambridge United53%

×Draw24%

Bristol Rovers23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.02

Cambridge United

1.71

Bristol Rovers

1.02

Cambridge United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.15

creates per match

1.34

0.69

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Cambridge United

2.15

Bristol Rovers

1.34

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.69

Bristol Rovers

1.26

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.85scores more

Bristol Rovers-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

77%

Cambridge United or Bristol Rovers

76%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

47%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

29%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

82%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

51%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

24%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

64%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

27%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

70%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.69 · 7 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 2.15 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bristol Rovers attack 1.34 + Cambridge United defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cambridge United scores more

53%

level

24%

Bristol Rovers scores more

23%

Cambridge United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Watts

Cambridge United · D

8.5

Match Events

34'

B. Knight

44'

Ben Purrington

45'

J. QuigleyPenalty

46'

E. Harrison← F. Cavegn

56'

B. KnightPenalty

59'

Jack Sparkes

65'

R. Smallwood← R. De Havilland

65'

J. Senior← T. Leigh

66'

P. Mpanzu← D. Ball

67'

S. Raggett← B. Knight

72'

Ellis Harrison

77'

K. Smith← S. McLoughlin

77'

E. Nevitt← L. Appere

79'

K. Watts↳ S. Raggett

80'

K. Thompson-Sommers← C. Mola

80'

P. Omochere← J. Quigley

84'

Alfie Kilgour

84'

S. Lavery← S. Kaikai

90+5'

Promise Omochere

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeBristol

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots9

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.25

6Corners2

13Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target5

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box6

0Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

338Total Passes382

190Accurate Passes244

56%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0

League Two: Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol Rovers

Cambridge United beat Bristol Rovers 3-1 in League Two on February 14, 2026.

Goals: B. Knight (34', 56' pen), J. Quigley (45' pen), K. Watts (79').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.

Cambridge United vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol Rovers