Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

E. Harrison 34'

8/23/2025

League Two · Round 5Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bristol Rovers31%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.46

Bristol Rovers

1.18

Cambridge United

1.46

Cambridge United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

1.79

1.13

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Cambridge United

1.79

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Cambridge United

0.96

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Cambridge United-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

56%

Bristol Rovers or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

69%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

69%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

33%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

77%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

43%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

41%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Cambridge United defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cambridge United attack 1.79 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

31%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Sparkes

Bristol Rovers · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

Isaac Hutchinson

15'

James Gibbons

34'

E. Harrison↳ A. Kilgour

41'

Luke Southwood

46'

J. Brophy← B. Purrington

46'

P. Mpanzu← S. McLoughlin

60'

F. Cavegn← E. Harrison

65'

K. Kouassi← E. Kachunga

72'

J. Senior← M. Southam-Hales

72'

R. Howley← I. Hutchinson

75'

B. Knight← J. Gibbons

80'

82'

87'

90+10'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolCambridge

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots8

3Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target0

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

266Total Passes339

155Accurate Passes246

58%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3