Cambridge United 2–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

S. Kaikai 90+6'

F. Okenabirhie 79'

8/19/2023

League One · Round 4Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United43%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Cambridge United

1.34

Bristol Rovers

1.08

Cambridge United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 131 away

1.08

creates per match

0.95

1.22

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

70%

Cambridge United or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

57%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

20%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

39%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

15%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

59%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cambridge United scores more

43%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

30%

Cambridge United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Stevens

Cambridge United · G

8.3

Match Events

13'

Connor Taylor

45'

Antony Evans

60'

S. Sinclair← A. Evans

61'

R. Loft← J. Marquis

64'

S. Kaikai← E. Kachunga

70'

Luca Hoole

71'

L. McCormick← A. Collins

73'

F. Okenabirhie← G. Yahyai

74'

H. Dunk← D. Andrew

79'

F. Okenabirhie↳ S. Kaikai

83'

L. Bogarde← S. Finley

83'

H. Vale← L. Gordon

88'

Michael Morrison

90+6'

Z. Rossi← J. Lankester

90+6'

S. Kaikai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeBristol

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots7

6Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target5

3Off Target1

5Blocked1

5Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

342Total Passes560

247Accurate Passes463

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2