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Cambridge United vs Bolton — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
2/20/2024League OneLeague One · Round 18Cledara Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United37%
×Draw27%
Bolton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.24
Bolton
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 136 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Bolton
1.19

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Bolton
1.40

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
64%
Cambridge United or Bolton
73%
Draw or Bolton
63%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
16%
Bolton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
71%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
35%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
13%
Bolton 1+ goals
70%
Bolton 2+ goals
34%
Bolton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
51%
Bolton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Bolton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bolton attack 1.19 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambridge United scores more
37%
level
27%
Bolton scores more
36%

Cambridge United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Bolton

Bolton beat Cambridge United 2-1 in League One on February 20, 2024.

The match was played at Cledara Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.