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Bolton vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
4/10/2023League OneLeague One · Round 41University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bolton55%
×Draw24%
Cambridge United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.75
Cambridge United
0.99

Bolton creates 77% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 92 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.73
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
79%
Bolton or Cambridge United
76%
Draw or Cambridge United
45%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
31%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
83%
Bolton 2+ goals
52%
Bolton 3+ goals
25%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
63%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
26%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
72%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bolton scores more
55%
level
24%
Cambridge United scores more
21%

Bolton at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bolton 1–1 Cambridge United

Bolton and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in League One on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.