Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Caledonian Braves vs Broxburn Athletic — League #731 2026

Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Broxburn Athletic
Broxburn Athletic
R. McNeil 7'
N. Locke 34'
10/1/2024League #731League #731 · Lowland League - 11Alliance Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caledonian Braves49%
×Draw24%
Broxburn Athletic27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonian Braves
1.67
Broxburn Athletic
1.17

Caledonian Braves creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Caledonian Braves
1.67
Broxburn Athletic
1.33

allows per match

Caledonian Braves
1.00
Broxburn Athletic
1.67

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par
Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Broxburn Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw
73%
Caledonian Braves or Broxburn Athletic
76%
Draw or Broxburn Athletic
51%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
26%
Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
81%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
50%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
23%
Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals
69%
Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals
33%
Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
65%
Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Broxburn Athletic away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 1.67 + Broxburn Athletic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Broxburn Athletic attack 1.33 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more
49%
level
24%
Broxburn Athletic scores more
27%

Caledonian Braves at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. McNeil
34'
N. Locke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #731: Caledonian Braves 1–1 Broxburn Athletic

Caledonian Braves and Broxburn Athletic drew 1-1 in League #731 on October 1, 2024.

Goals: R. McNeil (7'), N. Locke (34').

The match was played at Alliance Park in Motherwell.