Broxburn Athletic vs Caledonian Braves — League #731 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Broxburn Athletic17%
Caledonian Braves63%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Caledonian Braves creates 117% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Broxburn Athletic ↓
Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Broxburn Athletic at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches
Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Broxburn Athletic attack 0.67 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96
Caledonian Braves attack 1.50 + Broxburn Athletic defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Caledonian Braves at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Broxburn Athletic substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Linlithgow Rose
Stirling University
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Clydebank
Cumbernauld ColtsCaledonian Braves
Tranent Juniors
Berwick Rangers
Bo'ness United
Gala Fairydean Rovers
Hearts U21
Civil Service Strollers
Albion Rovers
Gretna 2008
Cowdenbeath
Celtic IIBroxburn Athletic
East StirlingshireIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Broxburn Athletic host Caledonian Braves on Tuesday, 29 July 2025 at 18:45. The match is part of the League #731 2026/2027 season.
Broxburn Athletic 0 – 2 Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves beat Broxburn Athletic 2-0 in League #731 on July 29, 2025.
Goals: L. Walker (50'), R. McNeil (71' pen).
The match was played at Albyn Park in Broxburn.