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Caldiero Terme vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
Unknown 69'
V. Cali 38', 27'
3/6/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Caldiero Terme27%
×Draw24%
Arzignano Valchiampo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.18
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.69

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.06

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.06

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
51%
Caldiero Terme or Arzignano Valchiampo
76%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
73%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
11%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
69%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
33%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
12%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
82%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
50%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
35%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
27%
level
24%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
49%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
V. Cali
38'
V. Cali
69'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caldiero Terme 1–2 Arzignano Valchiampo

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Caldiero Terme 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 6, 2022.

Goals: V. Cali (27', 38'), ? (69').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero in Caldiero.