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Arzignano Valchiampo vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
FT
4 – 2
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
10/24/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzignano Valchiampo53%
×Draw24%
Caldiero Terme24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzignano Valchiampo
1.74
Caldiero Terme
1.08

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.29
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
0.82
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzignano Valchiampo ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arzignano Valchiampo or draw
76%
Arzignano Valchiampo or Caldiero Terme
76%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
47%

Winning margin

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
29%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
82%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
52%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
25%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
66%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
29%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
69%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzignano Valchiampo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.29 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.74

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
53%
level
24%
Caldiero Terme scores more
24%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Arzignano Valchiampo 4–2 Caldiero Terme

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Caldiero Terme 4-2 in Serie D - Girone C on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin in Arzignano.