Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Calamonte vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Calamonte
Calamonte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Calamonte53%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamonte
1.67
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.98

Calamonte creates 70% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 66 away

creates per match

Calamonte
1.22
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Calamonte
1.10
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw
78%
Calamonte or Atlético Pueblonuevo
76%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
47%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals
81%
Calamonte 2+ goals
50%
Calamonte 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Calamonte scores more
53%
level
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
22%

Calamonte at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calamonte 2 – 1 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Calamonte beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Municipal Calamonteño in Calamonte.