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Atlético Pueblonuevo vs Calamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Calamonte
Calamonte
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 32Estadio Antonio Amaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo46%
×Draw26%
Calamonte28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.44
Calamonte
1.06

Atlético Pueblonuevo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.30
Calamonte
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.11
Calamonte
1.57

finishing

Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par
Calamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pueblonuevo ↓

Calamonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Pueblonuevo or draw
72%
Atlético Pueblonuevo or Calamonte
74%
Draw or Calamonte
54%

Winning margin

Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
22%
Calamonte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
42%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
18%
Calamonte 1+ goals
65%
Calamonte 2+ goals
29%
Calamonte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
62%
Calamonte (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pueblonuevo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Calamonte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 1.30 + Calamonte defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Calamonte attack 1.00 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
46%
level
26%
Calamonte scores more
28%

Atlético Pueblonuevo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Pueblonuevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Atlético Pueblonuevo 2–0 Calamonte

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat Calamonte 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Amaya in Pueblonuevo del Guadiana.