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Calahorra vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
12/12/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calahorra45%
×Draw27%
Unionistas de Salamanca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.37
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.03

Calahorra creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.47
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Calahorra
1.16
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
72%
Calahorra or Unionistas de Salamanca
73%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
55%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
21%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
75%
Calahorra 2+ goals
40%
Calahorra 3+ goals
16%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
64%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
28%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
61%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.47 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Calahorra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Calahorra scores more
45%
level
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
28%

Calahorra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Calahorra and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.