Calahorra 1–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Calahorra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

Jorge Fernández 6'

Javi Ribelles 86'

9/22/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Calahorra40%

×Draw27%

Unionistas de Salamanca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.18

Calahorra

1.32

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.18

Calahorra creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

1.02

creates per match

1.31

1.05

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Calahorra

1.02

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.31

allows per match

Calahorra

1.05

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

67%

Calahorra or Unionistas de Salamanca

73%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

60%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

18%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

73%

Calahorra 2+ goals

38%

Calahorra 3+ goals

15%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

69%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

33%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

55%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.32

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Calahorra scores more

40%

level

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

33%

Calahorra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Jorge Fernández

46'

Cristian Portilla← J. Blaise

69'

Iván Garrido← Álvaro Romero

70'

Isaac Manjón← José Ramón

75'

Sergio Parla← Adrien Goñi

85'

M. Amouzou← Javi Navas

86'

Javi Ribelles

88'

Echaide← Jorge Fernández

Calahorra

Unionistas

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Sola

70'▲Isaac Manjón←▼José Ramón

75'▲Sergio Parla←▼Adrien Goñi

88'▲Echaide←▼Jorge Fernández

Calahorra substitutes

ManjónParlaEchaideLozanoDíazBenitoMolluna

Manager: Roberto Aguirre

46'▲Cristian Portilla←▼J. Blaise

69'▲Iván Garrido←▼Álvaro Romero

85'▲M. Amouzou←▼Javi Navas

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

PortillaGarridoAmouzouGallegoAndrésHernándezLópez