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Calahorra vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
4/16/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calahorra46%
×Draw25%
Real Valladolid II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.54
Real Valladolid II
1.16

Calahorra creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.47
Real Valladolid II
1.16

allows per match

Calahorra
1.16
Real Valladolid II
1.61

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
71%
Calahorra or Real Valladolid II
75%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
54%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
23%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
79%
Calahorra 2+ goals
45%
Calahorra 3+ goals
20%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
69%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
32%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
62%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.47 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Calahorra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Calahorra scores more
46%
level
25%
Real Valladolid II scores more
29%

Calahorra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Real Valladolid II

Calahorra beat Real Valladolid II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.