Calahorra vs Real Valladolid II

Calahorra

CANC

00:00

Real Valladolid II

4/5/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Calahorra39%

×Draw29%

Real Valladolid II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.02

Calahorra

1.16

Real Valladolid II

1.02

Calahorra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.02

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Calahorra

1.02

Real Valladolid II

1.00

allows per match

Calahorra

1.05

Real Valladolid II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

68%

Calahorra or Real Valladolid II

71%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

61%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

16%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

69%

Calahorra 2+ goals

32%

Calahorra 3+ goals

11%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

64%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

27%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

55%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Valladolid II attack 1.00 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Calahorra scores more

39%

level

29%

Real Valladolid II scores more

32%

Calahorra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff