Cagliari 4–2 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.28

Cagliari

1.96

Crotone

1.28

Cagliari creates 53% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 26 away

1.27

creates per match

1.08

1.48

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Cagliari

1.27

Crotone

1.08

allows per match

Cagliari

1.48

Crotone

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

75%

Cagliari or Crotone

78%

Draw or Crotone

47%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

31%

Crotone wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

86%

Cagliari 2+ goals

58%

Cagliari 3+ goals

31%

Crotone 1+ goals

72%

Crotone 2+ goals

37%

Crotone 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

68%

Crotone (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 120 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.27 + Crotone defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Crotone attack 1.08 + Cagliari defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cagliari scores more

53%

level

22%

Crotone scores more

25%

Cagliari at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

João Pedro

Cagliari · F

8.9

Match Events

17'

Luca Cigarini

21'

Junior Messias↳ A. Reca

25'

C. Lykogiannis

31'

Răzvan Marin

35'

G. Simeone↳ João Pedro

43'

45'

48'

48'

52'

61'

61'

66'

Charalampos Lykogiannis

74'

A. Ounas← R. Sottil

77'

G. Crociata← Pedro Pereira

81'

R. Klavan← C. Lykogiannis

81'

L. Pavoletti← G. Simeone

84'

João Pedro

85'

João PedroPenalty confirmed

88'

C. Oliva← R. Marin

88'

P. Faragò← G. Zappa

90'

Ahmad Benali

90'

E. Rivière← S. Nwankwo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariCrotone

Overview

43%Possession57%

19Total Shots12

5Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots12

8On Target6

9Off Target5

2Blocked1

10Inside Box9

9Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

394Total Passes514

333Accurate Passes450

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Serie A: Cagliari 4–2 Crotone

Cagliari beat Crotone 4-2 in Serie A on October 25, 2020.

Goals: Junior Messias (21'), C. Lykogiannis (25'), G. Simeone (35'), S. Molina (43'), R. Sottil (45'), João Pedro (84').

Crotone controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 19.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cagliari 4–2 Crotone