Cagliari 1–0 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crotone

M. Sau 33'

9/10/2017

Serie A · Round 3Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cagliari54%

×Draw22%

Crotone24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.22

Cagliari

1.94

Crotone

1.22

Cagliari creates 59% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

0.97

1.47

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Cagliari

1.30

Crotone

0.97

allows per match

Cagliari

1.47

Crotone

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

76%

Cagliari or Crotone

78%

Draw or Crotone

46%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

31%

Crotone wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

86%

Cagliari 2+ goals

58%

Cagliari 3+ goals

30%

Crotone 1+ goals

70%

Crotone 2+ goals

34%

Crotone 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

69%

Crotone (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.47 · 128 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.30 + Crotone defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.94

Crotone attack 0.97 + Cagliari defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cagliari scores more

54%

level

22%

Crotone scores more

24%

Cagliari at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

F. Pisacane

Cagliari · D

7.5

Match Events

33'

43'

45'

53'

58'

A. Ioniţă← D. Dessena

59'

M. Tumminello← M. Trotta

65'

O. Kragl← M. Rohdén

71'

P. Faragò← João Pedro

76'

Diego Farias← M. Sau

77'

G. Crociata← A. Stoian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariCrotone

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots9

6Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target2

7Off Target4

2Blocked3

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

521Total Passes336

408Accurate Passes223

78%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1