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Caen vs CA Bastia — Ligue 2 2010

Caen
Caen
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
CA Bastia
CA Bastia
M. Autret 82'
M. Duhamel 73', 28'
F. Fajr 60', 34', 8'
F. Marty 47'
5/2/2014Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Caen60%
×Draw25%
CA Bastia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.56
CA Bastia
0.63

Caen creates 148% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 19 away

creates per match

Caen
1.34
CA Bastia
0.32

allows per match

Caen
0.93
CA Bastia
1.79

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
CA Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

CA Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Caen or draw
85%
Caen or CA Bastia
75%
Draw or CA Bastia
40%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
32%
CA Bastia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
79%
Caen 2+ goals
46%
Caen 3+ goals
21%
CA Bastia 1+ goals
47%
CA Bastia 2+ goals
13%
CA Bastia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
80%
CA Bastia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.93 · 143 matches

CA Bastia away — creates 0.32, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.34 + CA Bastia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

CA Bastia attack 0.32 + Caen defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Caen scores more
60%
level
25%
CA Bastia scores more
15%

Caen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
F. Fajr
28'
M. Duhamel
34'
F. Fajr
47'
F. Marty
60'
F. Fajr
73'
M. Duhamel
82'
M. Autret

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caen vs CA Bastia

Caen beat CA Bastia 6-1 in Ligue 2 on May 2, 2014.

Goals: F. Fajr (8', 34', 60'), M. Duhamel (28', 73'), F. Marty (47'), M. Autret (82').

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.