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CA Bastia vs Caen — Ligue 2 2010

CA Bastia
CA Bastia
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Caen
Caen
R. Pastorelli 84' (pen)
B. Koita 77', 74'
M. Duhamel 47'
F. Fajr 39'
L. Agouazi 26'
12/13/2013Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Armand Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CA Bastia31%
×Draw27%
Caen42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bastia
1.11
Caen
1.36

Caen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 143 away

creates per match

CA Bastia
0.79
Caen
1.19

allows per match

CA Bastia
1.53
Caen
1.43

finishing

CA Bastia+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bastia ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CA Bastia or draw
58%
CA Bastia or Caen
73%
Draw or Caen
69%

Winning margin

CA Bastia wins by 2+
12%
Caen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

CA Bastia 1+ goals
67%
CA Bastia 2+ goals
30%
CA Bastia 3+ goals
10%
Caen 1+ goals
74%
Caen 2+ goals
39%
Caen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CA Bastia (draw refunded)
42%
Caen (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bastia at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Caen away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.43 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bastia attack 0.79 + Caen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Caen attack 1.19 + CA Bastia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CA Bastia scores more
31%
level
27%
Caen scores more
42%

Caen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
L. Agouazi
39'
F. Fajr
47'
M. Duhamel
74'
B. Koita
77'
B. Koita
84'
R. PastorelliPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CA Bastia 1–5 Caen

Caen beat CA Bastia 5-1 in Ligue 2 on December 13, 2013.

Goals: L. Agouazi (26'), F. Fajr (39'), M. Duhamel (47'), B. Koita (74', 77'), R. Pastorelli (84' pen).

The match was played at Stade Armand Césari in Furiani.