Cadiz 0–1 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Andorra

4/12/2026

Segunda División · Round 35JP Financial Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Cadiz44%

×Draw28%

FC Andorra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.01

Cadiz

1.32

FC Andorra

1.01

Cadiz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 63 away

1.29

creates per match

1.02

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Cadiz

1.29

FC Andorra

1.02

allows per match

Cadiz

1.00

FC Andorra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

71%

Cadiz or FC Andorra

72%

Draw or FC Andorra

56%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

20%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

73%

Cadiz 2+ goals

38%

Cadiz 3+ goals

15%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

64%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

27%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

60%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 84 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.29 + FC Andorra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Andorra attack 1.02 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cadiz scores more

44%

level

28%

FC Andorra scores more

29%

Cadiz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff