Cadiz 1–3 Burgos: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Cadiz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Burgos

J. Ontiveros 16'

M. Mejia 90' (pen)

D. Gonzalez Ballesteros 45'

G. Sierra 41'

10/20/2025

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Cadiz45%

×Draw29%

Burgos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

Cadiz

1.27

Burgos

0.90

Cadiz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 105 away

1.28

creates per match

0.79

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cadiz

1.28

Burgos

0.79

allows per match

Cadiz

1.00

Burgos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

74%

Cadiz or Burgos

71%

Draw or Burgos

55%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

20%

Burgos wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

72%

Cadiz 2+ goals

36%

Cadiz 3+ goals

14%

Burgos 1+ goals

59%

Burgos 2+ goals

23%

Burgos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

63%

Burgos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.28 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Burgos attack 0.79 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cadiz scores more

45%

level

29%

Burgos scores more

26%

Cadiz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Ontiveros

Cadiz · F

8.9

Match Events

16'

J. Ontiveros↳ A. Pascual

41'

G. Sierra↳ A. Lizancos

45'

D. Gonzalez Ballesteros↳ A. Lizancos

46'

M. Climent← R. Pereira

46'

D. Camara← A. Pascual

46'

E. Ugiagbe← I. Tabatadze

51'

Bojan KovačevićGoal cancelled

65'

Iván Morante

67'

S. Gonzalez← Curro

67'

M. Mejia← F. Nino

74'

Sergio Ortuño

76'

R. Marti← B. Kovacevic

77'

78'

82'

83'

89'

M. Cantero← D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

90+13'

Suso

90+12'

Mateo Mejia

90+5'

J. de la Rosa← J. Ontiveros

90'

M. MejiaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizBurgos

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots13

1Corners4

14Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target4

5Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box11

2Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

446Total Passes299

367Accurate Passes229

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Burgos

Burgos beat Cadiz 3-1 in Segunda División on October 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Ontiveros (16'), G. Sierra (41'), D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (45'), M. Mejia (90' pen).

Cadiz controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cadiz.

Cadiz vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Burgos