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Burgos vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Burgos
Burgos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cadiz
Cadiz
David González 71'
Marcelo Expósito 45+1'
Roger 84'
Rubén Sobrino 42'
4/19/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 36Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Burgos59%
×Draw25%
Cadiz16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos
1.61
Cadiz
0.71

Burgos creates 127% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Burgos
1.65
Cadiz
0.85

allows per match

Burgos
0.57
Cadiz
1.58

finishing

Burgos+0.35scores more
Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burgos or draw
84%
Burgos or Cadiz
75%
Draw or Cadiz
41%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+
32%
Cadiz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals
80%
Burgos 2+ goals
48%
Burgos 3+ goals
22%
Cadiz 1+ goals
51%
Cadiz 2+ goals
16%
Cadiz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)
78%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.57 · 6 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.65 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Burgos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Burgos scores more
59%
level
25%
Cadiz scores more
16%

Burgos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Álex SancrisBurgosBurgos · M
7.9

Match Events

42'
Rubén Sobrino↳ Chris Ramos
45+1'
Marcelo Expósito↳ Álex Sancris
60'
Javi Ontiveros← Óscar Melendo
60'
José Matos← José de la Rosa
62'
Iñigo Córdoba← Edu Espiau
70'
Roger← Chris Ramos
71'
David González↳ Iñigo Córdoba
73'
Anderson Arroyo
77'
Borja Sánchez← David González
77'
Pipa← A. Arroyo
82'
G. Escalante← Álex Fernández
82'
Joseba Zaldúa← Iza Carcelén
84'
Roger↳ Mario Climent
86'
Dani Ojeda← Álex Sancris
86'
Elady← Fer Niño
89'
Joseba Zaldúa
90+5'
Pipa

Possession

43%Burgos

Shots

12Burgos

Pass accuracy

49%Burgos

Statistics

BurgosCadiz
Overview
43%Possession57%
12Total Shots9
3Corners2
11Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target2
6Off Target4
3Blocked3
7Inside Box9
5Outside Box0
Passing
43%Possession57%
369Total Passes480
290Accurate Passes389
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
7Offsides0

Match Recap: Burgos vs Cadiz

Burgos and Cadiz drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Rubén Sobrino (42'), Marcelo Expósito (45+1'), David González (71'), Roger (84').

Cadiz controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.