Cacereño 6–0 Azuaga: Result & Stats

Cacereño

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Azuaga

Murci 80', 40', 6'

Carlitos 78'

Ezequiel Lamarca 19'

Alberto Delgado 2'

10/20/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño56%

×Draw23%

Azuaga21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CacereñoExpected goals in this matchAzuaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.98

Cacereño

1.78

Azuaga

0.98

Cacereño creates 82% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 108 away

2.38

creates per match

1.34

0.62

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Cacereño

2.38

Azuaga

1.34

allows per match

Cacereño

0.62

Azuaga

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par

Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Azuaga →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw

79%

Cacereño or Azuaga

77%

Draw or Azuaga

44%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+

32%

Azuaga wins by 2+

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals

83%

Cacereño 2+ goals

53%

Cacereño 3+ goals

26%

Azuaga 1+ goals

62%

Azuaga 2+ goals

26%

Azuaga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)

73%

Azuaga (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.78

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cacereño scores more

56%

level

23%

Azuaga scores more

21%

Cacereño at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

40'

54'

Luis Barragan← Pablo Mogollón

57'

Mario Ramón← Carlos Dorado

66'

Álex← Ezequiel Lamarca

66'

Jaime Márquez← Perla

75'

Dani Muñoz← Teto Carrasco

78'

Carlitos

80'

Murci

88'

Manuel Prieto← Chechu

Cacereño

Azuaga

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Lamarca

⚽3

Murci

Manager: Julio Cobos

57'▲Mario Ramón←▼Carlos Dorado

66'▲Álex←▼Ezequiel Lamarca

75'▲Dani Muñoz←▼Teto Carrasco

Cacereño substitutes

RamónÁlexMuñoz

Manager: Antonio Cobos

54'▲Luis Barragan←▼Pablo Mogollón

66'▲Jaime Márquez←▼Perla

88'▲Manuel Prieto←▼Chechu

Azuaga substitutes

BarraganMárquezPrieto

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Cacereño 6–0 Azuaga

Cacereño beat Azuaga 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 20, 2019.

Goals: Alberto Delgado (2'), Murci (6', 40', 80'), Ezequiel Lamarca (19'), Carlitos (78').

The match was played at Estadio Príncipe Felipe in Cáceres.

Cacereño vs Azuaga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Cacereño 6–0 Azuaga