Azuaga 0–1 Cacereño: Result & Stats

Azuaga

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cacereño

Marcos Torres 82'

3/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Azuaga31%

×Draw28%

Cacereño42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzuagaExpected goals in this matchCacereño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.30

Azuaga

1.08

Cacereño

1.30

Cacereño creates 20% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 27 away

1.61

creates per match

1.78

0.83

allows per match

0.56

creates per match

Azuaga

1.61

Cacereño

1.78

allows per match

Azuaga

0.83

Cacereño

0.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par

Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Cacereño →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw

58%

Azuaga or Cacereño

72%

Draw or Cacereño

69%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+

12%

Cacereño wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals

66%

Azuaga 2+ goals

29%

Azuaga 3+ goals

10%

Cacereño 1+ goals

73%

Cacereño 2+ goals

37%

Cacereño 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)

43%

Cacereño (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Cacereño defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cacereño attack 1.78 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Azuaga scores more

31%

level

28%

Cacereño scores more

42%

Cacereño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Rodri← Rubén Sánchez

66'

Marcos Torres← Iván Agudo

73'

Agus← Kiko

76'

Chepe← Luis Barragan

78'

Álex← Murci

82'

Marcos Torres

86'

Juan Durán← Mati

Azuaga

Cacereño

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Cobos

73'▲Agus←▼Kiko

76'▲Chepe←▼Luis Barragan

86'▲Juan Durán←▼Mati

Azuaga substitutes

AgusChepeDurán

Manager: Julio Cobos

60'▲Rodri←▼Rubén Sánchez

66'▲Marcos Torres←▼Iván Agudo

78'▲Álex←▼Murci

Cacereño substitutes

RodriTorresÁlex

Match Recap: Azuaga vs Cacereño

Cacereño beat Azuaga 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 8, 2020.

Goals: Marcos Torres (82').

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.

Azuaga vs Cacereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Azuaga vs Cacereño