Cabecense 2–2 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Cabecense

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AD Ceuta FC

12/13/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cabecense39%

×Draw27%

AD Ceuta FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabecenseExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

Cabecense

1.31

AD Ceuta FC

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 12 away

1.11

creates per match

1.08

1.34

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cabecense

1.11

AD Ceuta FC

1.08

allows per match

Cabecense

1.34

AD Ceuta FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw

66%

Cabecense or AD Ceuta FC

73%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

61%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+

18%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals

73%

Cabecense 2+ goals

38%

Cabecense 3+ goals

14%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

70%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

34%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)

53%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.08 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cabecense scores more

39%

level

27%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

34%

Cabecense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cabecense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff