AD Ceuta FC 2–0 Cabecense: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cabecense

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Ceuta FC63%

×Draw23%

Cabecense13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchCabecense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.62

AD Ceuta FC

1.69

Cabecense

0.62

AD Ceuta FC creates 173% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 47 away

1.58

creates per match

0.49

0.75

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.58

Cabecense

0.49

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

0.75

Cabecense

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Cabecense →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

87%

AD Ceuta FC or Cabecense

77%

Draw or Cabecense

37%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

36%

Cabecense wins by 2+

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

82%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

50%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

24%

Cabecense 1+ goals

46%

Cabecense 2+ goals

13%

Cabecense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

83%

Cabecense (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.58 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cabecense attack 0.49 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

63%

level

23%

Cabecense scores more

13%

AD Ceuta FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff