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CA River Plate vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

CA River Plate
CA River Plate
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Boston River
Boston River
3/9/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 4Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

CA River Plate43%
×Draw27%
Boston River30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA River Plate
1.40
Boston River
1.13

CA River Plate creates 24% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 82 away

creates per match

CA River Plate
1.53
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

CA River Plate
1.24
Boston River
1.27

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw
70%
CA River Plate or Boston River
73%
Draw or Boston River
57%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+
20%
Boston River wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals
75%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
41%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
17%
Boston River 1+ goals
68%
Boston River 2+ goals
31%
Boston River 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)
59%
Boston River (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 72 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.53 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Boston River attack 1.02 + CA River Plate defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CA River Plate scores more
43%
level
27%
Boston River scores more
30%

CA River Plate at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA River Plate vs Boston River

Boston River beat CA River Plate 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi in Montevideo.