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Boston River vs CA River Plate — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CA River Plate
CA River Plate
3/3/2023Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Boston River42%
×Draw27%
CA River Plate31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.33
CA River Plate
1.10

Boston River creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 75 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
CA River Plate
0.92

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
CA River Plate
1.48

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
CA River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

CA River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
69%
Boston River or CA River Plate
73%
Draw or CA River Plate
58%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
19%
CA River Plate wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
74%
Boston River 2+ goals
38%
Boston River 3+ goals
15%
CA River Plate 1+ goals
67%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
30%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
58%
CA River Plate (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

CA River Plate away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + CA River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

CA River Plate attack 0.92 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boston River scores more
42%
level
27%
CA River Plate scores more
31%

Boston River at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs CA River Plate

Boston River and CA River Plate drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.