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CA River Plate vs Atletico Nacional — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

CA River Plate
CA River Plate
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
S. Píriz 90'
M. Arezo 26', 5'
J. Duque 34'
11/4/2020CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundParque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CA River Plate53%
×Draw23%
Atletico Nacional24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA River Plate
1.83
Atletico Nacional
1.17

CA River Plate creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

CA River Plate
1.00
Atletico Nacional
1.00

allows per match

CA River Plate
1.33
Atletico Nacional
2.67

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw
76%
CA River Plate or Atletico Nacional
77%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
47%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+
30%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals
84%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
54%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
28%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.00 + Atletico Nacional defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Atletico Nacional attack 1.00 + CA River Plate defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CA River Plate scores more
53%
level
23%
Atletico Nacional scores more
24%

CA River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. ArezoCA River PlateCA River Plate · F
8.5

Match Events

5'
M. Arezo
16'
G. Rodríguez← R. Rodríguez
26'
M. Arezo↳ P. Neris
34'
J. Duque↳ B. Perlaza
42'
Gonzalo Viera
45'
Helibelton Palacios
45'
Jefferson Duque
46'
S. Píriz← A. Leites
47'
Brayan Rovira
54'
E. Murillo← B. Córdoba
71'
N. González← P. Neris
72'
D. Quiñónes← S. Gómez
72'
F. González← J. Barrera
81'
E. Arango← B. Rovira
82'
M. Montiel← D. Vicente
82'
M. Alonso← M. Arezo
90'
S. Píriz↳ M. Alonso

Possession

39%CA

Shots

18CA

Pass accuracy

47%CA

Statistics

CAAtletico
Overview
39%Possession61%
18Total Shots9
4Corners3
22Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots9
10On Target3
4Off Target3
4Blocked3
13Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
263Total Passes411
164Accurate Passes290
62%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
22Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: CA River Plate vs Atletico Nacional

CA River Plate beat Atletico Nacional 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on November 4, 2020.

Goals: M. Arezo (5', 26'), J. Duque (34'), S. Píriz (90').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera in Montevideo.