Atletico Nacional 1–1 CA River Plate

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CA River Plate

V. Hernández 34'

H. Salaberry 69'

10/28/2020

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Nacional41%

×Draw28%

CA River Plate31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchCA River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.25

CA River Plate

1.06

Atletico Nacional creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.50

CA River Plate

1.11

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

1.00

CA River Plate

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

CA River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

CA River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

69%

Atletico Nacional or CA River Plate

72%

Draw or CA River Plate

59%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

18%

CA River Plate wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

13%

CA River Plate 1+ goals

65%

CA River Plate 2+ goals

29%

CA River Plate 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

56%

CA River Plate (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

CA River Plate away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.50 + CA River Plate defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

CA River Plate attack 1.11 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

41%

level

28%

CA River Plate scores more

31%

Atletico Nacional at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Andrade

19'

B. Perlaza

34'

V. Hernández

36'

A. Leites← M. Calzada

45'

G. Rodriguez

45+3'

Y. Mosquera

45+5'

A. Quintana

46'

J. Fory← J. Duque

46'

G. Viera← G. Rodríguez

57'

J. Barrera← A. Andrade

57'

D. Quiñónes← Y. Candelo

59'

H. Salaberry

64'

Y. Mena← V. Hernández

66'

F. Ospitaleche

68'

F. Vigo← F. Ospitaleche

69'

77'

77'

83'

89'

T. N. Borbas Silva

Atletico

CA

1

Olveira

4

⚽

Salaberry

31

Bonifazi

2

▼

Rodríguez

17

Rodríguez

8

▼

Calzada

7

Rodríguez

5

▼

Ospitalec

40

Vicente

28

▼

Neris

9

▼

1

5

13

22

10

▼

Andrade

19

▼

14

8

12

16

⚽

▼

Hernández

9

▼

Duque

Manager: J. Osorio

46'▲J. Fory←▼J. Duque

57'▲J. Barrera←▼A. Andrade

57'▲D. Quiñónes←▼Y. Candelo

64'▲Y. Mena←▼V. Hernández

Atletico Nacional substitutes

3Fory7Barrera23Quiñónes11Mena17González24Arango30Cuadrado15Blanco27Gómez

Manager: J. Fossati

36'▲A. Leites←▼M. Calzada

46'▲G. Viera←▼G. Rodríguez

68'▲F. Vigo←▼F. Ospitaleche

77'▲J. Olivera←▼P. Neris

77'▲T. Borbas←▼M. Arezo

CA River Plate substitutes

30Leites13Viera32Vigo19Olivera18Borbas14Montiel12Machado20Píriz23Alonso6Silvera34Ferreira24Brunelli