CA Estudiantes 0–1 Almirante Brown: Result & Stats

CA Estudiantes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Almirante Brown

3/1/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

CA Estudiantes47%

×Draw29%

Almirante Brown23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA EstudiantesExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.78

CA Estudiantes

1.25

Almirante Brown

0.78

CA Estudiantes creates 60% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 102 away

1.25

creates per match

0.85

0.72

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

CA Estudiantes

1.25

Almirante Brown

0.85

allows per match

CA Estudiantes

0.72

Almirante Brown

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw

77%

CA Estudiantes or Almirante Brown

71%

Draw or Almirante Brown

53%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

22%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

71%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

36%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

13%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

54%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

18%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

67%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.72 · 120 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more

47%

level

29%

Almirante Brown scores more

23%

CA Estudiantes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff