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Almirante Brown vs CA Estudiantes — Primera Nacional 2018

Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
3/13/2022Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 5Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Almirante Brown39%
×Draw33%
CA Estudiantes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almirante Brown
1.00
CA Estudiantes
0.79

Almirante Brown creates 27% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 117 away

creates per match

Almirante Brown
0.98
CA Estudiantes
0.81

allows per match

Almirante Brown
0.76
CA Estudiantes
1.02

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par
CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

CA Estudiantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw
72%
Almirante Brown or CA Estudiantes
67%
Draw or CA Estudiantes
61%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+
15%
CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals
63%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
26%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
8%
CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
55%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
19%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
59%
CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.76 · 103 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.02 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.98 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

CA Estudiantes attack 0.81 + Almirante Brown defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almirante Brown scores more
39%
level
33%
CA Estudiantes scores more
28%

Almirante Brown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Almirante Brown 1–0 CA Estudiantes

Almirante Brown beat CA Estudiantes 1-0 in Primera Nacional on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.