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Bytovia Bytów vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
4/2/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 25Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów42%
×Draw25%
Garbarnia Kraków33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.52
Garbarnia Kraków
1.33

Bytovia Bytów creates 14% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
67%
Bytovia Bytów or Garbarnia Kraków
75%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
58%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
21%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
78%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
45%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
20%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
74%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
38%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
56%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
42%
level
25%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
33%

Bytovia Bytów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Bytovia Bytów 1–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in II Liga - East on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.