Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

11/24/2018

I Liga · Round 20Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów55%

×Draw24%

Garbarnia Kraków21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.94

Bytovia Bytów

1.68

Garbarnia Kraków

0.94

Bytovia Bytów creates 79% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.18

creates per match

0.71

1.18

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków

0.71

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

79%

Bytovia Bytów or Garbarnia Kraków

76%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

45%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

30%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

81%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

50%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

24%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

61%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

24%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

72%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.68

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

55%

level

24%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

21%

Bytovia Bytów at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff