Butrinti Sarandë 0–1 Naftëtari Kuçovë

Butrinti Sarandë

FT

0 – 1

Naftëtari Kuçovë

10/23/2016

League #513 · Round 3Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë53%

×Draw26%

Naftëtari Kuçovë21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Butrinti SarandëExpected goals in this matchNaftëtari Kuçovë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.85

Butrinti Sarandë

1.52

Naftëtari Kuçovë

0.85

Butrinti Sarandë creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

0.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë

1.25

Naftëtari Kuçovë

1.20

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë

0.50

Naftëtari Kuçovë

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Naftëtari Kuçovë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Naftëtari Kuçovë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw

79%

Butrinti Sarandë or Naftëtari Kuçovë

74%

Draw or Naftëtari Kuçovë

47%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

27%

Naftëtari Kuçovë wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

78%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

45%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

20%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 1+ goals

57%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 2+ goals

21%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

72%

Naftëtari Kuçovë (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Naftëtari Kuçovë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.25 + Naftëtari Kuçovë defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Naftëtari Kuçovë attack 1.20 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

53%

level

26%

Naftëtari Kuçovë scores more

21%

Butrinti Sarandë at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff