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Butrinti Sarandë vs Naftëtari Kuçovë — 1st Division 2019

Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Naftëtari Kuçovë
Naftëtari Kuçovë
A. Kola 83' (pen)
S. Alzeneli 34'
A. Xhibro 15'
5/11/20131st Division1st Division · Round 30Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë63%
×Draw25%
Naftëtari Kuçovë12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Butrinti Sarandë
1.54
Naftëtari Kuçovë
0.49

Butrinti Sarandë creates 214% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 3 away

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë
1.42
Naftëtari Kuçovë
0.33

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë
0.65
Naftëtari Kuçovë
1.67

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par
Naftëtari Kuçovë+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Naftëtari Kuçovë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw
88%
Butrinti Sarandë or Naftëtari Kuçovë
75%
Draw or Naftëtari Kuçovë
37%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
34%
Naftëtari Kuçovë wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
79%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
45%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
20%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 1+ goals
39%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 2+ goals
9%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
85%
Naftëtari Kuçovë (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 26 matches

Naftëtari Kuçovë away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.42 + Naftëtari Kuçovë defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Naftëtari Kuçovë attack 0.33 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more
63%
level
25%
Naftëtari Kuçovë scores more
12%

Butrinti Sarandë at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Xhibro
34'
S. Alzeneli
83'
A. KolaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Butrinti Sarandë vs Naftëtari Kuçovë

Butrinti Sarandë beat Naftëtari Kuçovë 3-0 in 1st Division on May 11, 2013.

Goals: A. Xhibro (15'), S. Alzeneli (34'), A. Kola (83' pen).

The match was played at Stadiumi Andon Lapa.