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Butrinti Sarandë vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
4/23/20221st Division1st Division · Round 28Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë52%
×Draw27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Butrinti Sarandë
1.46
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.83

Butrinti Sarandë creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë
1.44
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë
0.81
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw
79%
Butrinti Sarandë or Besëlidhja Lezhë
73%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
48%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
77%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
43%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
18%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
56%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
20%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
71%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.44 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more
52%
level
27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
21%

Butrinti Sarandë at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Butrinti Sarandë 3–2 Besëlidhja Lezhë

Butrinti Sarandë beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 3-2 in 1st Division on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Andon Lapa in Sarandë.