Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Butrinti Sarandë — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
12/14/20211st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë51%
×Draw25%
Butrinti Sarandë24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.56
Butrinti Sarandë
0.97

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 61% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Butrinti Sarandë
0.65

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Butrinti Sarandë
1.53

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
76%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Butrinti Sarandë
75%
Draw or Butrinti Sarandë
49%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
26%
Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
79%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
46%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
21%
Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
62%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
25%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
68%
Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Butrinti Sarandë attack 0.65 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
51%
level
25%
Butrinti Sarandë scores more
24%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 2–1 Butrinti Sarandë

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Butrinti Sarandë 2-1 in 1st Division on December 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.