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Busoga United vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

Busoga United
Busoga United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
12/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Kakindu Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Busoga United39%
×Draw29%
Bright Stars31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busoga United
1.17
Bright Stars
1.01

Busoga United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 83 away

creates per match

Busoga United
0.94
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

Busoga United
1.17
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

Busoga United+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busoga United ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Busoga United or draw
69%
Busoga United or Bright Stars
71%
Draw or Bright Stars
61%

Winning margin

Busoga United wins by 2+
17%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Busoga United 1+ goals
69%
Busoga United 2+ goals
33%
Busoga United 3+ goals
11%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
64%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
27%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Busoga United (draw refunded)
56%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busoga United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 69 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busoga United attack 0.94 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Busoga United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Busoga United scores more
39%
level
29%
Bright Stars scores more
31%

Busoga United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Busoga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Busoga United 0–1 Bright Stars

Bright Stars beat Busoga United 1-0 in Premier League on December 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kakindu Municipal Stadium in Jinja.