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Bright Stars vs Busoga United — Premier League 2019

Bright Stars
Bright Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Busoga United
Busoga United
4/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bright Stars50%
×Draw27%
Busoga United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bright Stars
1.46
Busoga United
0.90

Bright Stars creates 62% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bright Stars
1.14
Busoga United
0.84

allows per match

Bright Stars
0.95
Busoga United
1.78

finishing

Bright Stars+0.00on par
Busoga United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bright Stars ↓

Busoga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bright Stars or draw
77%
Bright Stars or Busoga United
73%
Draw or Busoga United
50%

Winning margin

Bright Stars wins by 2+
25%
Busoga United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bright Stars 1+ goals
77%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
43%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
18%
Busoga United 1+ goals
59%
Busoga United 2+ goals
23%
Busoga United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bright Stars (draw refunded)
68%
Busoga United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bright Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

Busoga United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bright Stars attack 1.14 + Busoga United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Busoga United attack 0.84 + Bright Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bright Stars scores more
50%
level
27%
Busoga United scores more
23%

Bright Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bright Stars vs Busoga United

Bright Stars and Busoga United drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Kavumba Recreation Center in Wakiso.