Burton Albion vs Wycombe: Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion

Preview

15:00

Wycombe

1/30/2027

League One · Round 28Pirelli Stadium

Big match

37%

Burton Albion

model favours

37%26%36%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Burton Albion37%

×Draw26%

Wycombe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.28

Burton Albion

1.31

Wycombe

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 177 home / 158 away

1.29

creates per match

1.26

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Wycombe

1.26

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Wycombe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

64%

Burton Albion or Wycombe

74%

Draw or Wycombe

63%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

17%

Wycombe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

73%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

38%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

14%

Wycombe 1+ goals

72%

Wycombe 2+ goals

37%

Wycombe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

51%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more

37%

level

26%

Wycombe scores more

36%

Burton Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Style contrast — Burton Albion play Direct / counter-attacking, Wycombe Defensively solid
Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

Wycombe

Defensively solid

43%Possession48%

64%Pass accuracy67%

10.1Shots12.2

1.31xGBiggest gap1.91

Burton AlbionWycombe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1

Burton Albion

3

Draws

6

Wycombe

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%

0–30–00–22–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Albion

LLDDD

Wycombe

LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Wycombe (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Wycombe. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Wycombe at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Burton Albion vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Burton Albion face Wycombe (League One)