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Burton Albion vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
CANC
15:00
Wycombe
Wycombe
3/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 38Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion42%
×Draw25%
Wycombe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.51
Wycombe
1.33

Burton Albion creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Wycombe
1.72

allows per match

Burton Albion
0.95
Wycombe
1.74

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par
Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
67%
Burton Albion or Wycombe
75%
Draw or Wycombe
58%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
20%
Wycombe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
78%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
44%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
19%
Wycombe 1+ goals
74%
Wycombe 2+ goals
38%
Wycombe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
55%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burton Albion scores more
42%
level
25%
Wycombe scores more
33%

Burton Albion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Wycombe — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Wycombe on March 14, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Wycombe at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.