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Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
CANC
14:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
4/10/2020League OneLeague One · Round 42Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Burton Albion43%
×Draw27%
Shrewsbury30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.34
Shrewsbury
1.08

Burton Albion creates 24% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 152 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.29
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.30
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
70%
Burton Albion or Shrewsbury
73%
Draw or Shrewsbury
57%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
20%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
74%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
39%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
66%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
29%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
59%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burton Albion scores more
43%
level
27%
Shrewsbury scores more
30%

Burton Albion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Shrewsbury on April 10, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Shrewsbury at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.