Burton Albion 0–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

8/20/2022

League One · Round 5Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Burton Albion48%

×Draw26%

Port Vale26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.06

Burton Albion

1.52

Port Vale

1.06

Burton Albion creates 43% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 72 away

1.28

creates per match

0.82

1.31

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Port Vale

0.82

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.31

Port Vale

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

74%

Burton Albion or Port Vale

74%

Draw or Port Vale

52%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

24%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

78%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

45%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

20%

Port Vale 1+ goals

65%

Port Vale 2+ goals

29%

Port Vale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

64%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burton Albion scores more

48%

level

26%

Port Vale scores more

26%

Burton Albion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff